The State of the Race for the 2020 Democratic Nomination: Candidate Roundup

Let me start out by saying that there is nothing objective about my analysis. I am not a journalist, nor do I have pretensions to become one. I am not here to be objective and to offer only facts; I am here to offer my opinion and analysis, both of which are entirely subjective, but which are supported by facts. Finally, let me point out that I am only looking at declared candidates. So please hold the emails asking me why I left out Joe Biden.

So let's dive right in, taking them alphabetically at first. I will look at each candidate currently in the race, then, at the end, rank them according to my preferences, which are heavily influenced by my overarching priority: seeing Donald Trump removed from office in a humiliating electoral defeat.

1) Cory Booker. 49. Former mayor of Newark, NJ. Current senator from New Jersey. His strengths: his time as a mayor gives him very helpful insights into issues like urban renewal and planning, managing government in a diverse community, and reconciling often conflicting interests. And no one can dispute that his oratory skill is almost at Obama's level. But for me, Booker is a non-starter for several reasons. He has in the past been in bed with the Kushner family, who helped raise money for his campaigns. And we can't excuse that by saying that that was the pre-Trump era: the Kushner family has always been shady. (Google Charles Kushner. You'll want to take a shower when you're done.) Still, that wouldn't be overly problematic if he later repudiated them after Trump's rise and the questionable role Jared has played in that whole saga. But he hasn't really. 2) Speaking of being afraid of repudiating things, my second issue with Booker is his timidity towards Trump. I want a candidate who will call a spade a spade. When asked in February if he thinks Trump is a racist, Booker demurred and mumbled something about not knowing the man's heart. If after Charlottesville you are still too afraid to label Donald Trump a racist, you are not my candidate. We won't beat him by playing nice. 3) Big Pharma. Booker has taken a lot of money from Pharma. To his credit, in 2017, he announced he was "putting a pause" on taking Pharma money. But this doesn't seem to have stopped him from voting in a way that is very much in their interests and against the interests of American consumers and patients. 4) Support for charter schools. My objections to charter schools would require a separate article by itself. Suffice it to say, I am loath to support any candidate who is as pro-charters as he is. Forecast: senator till he dies or retires.

2) Pete Buttigieg. 37. Mayor of South Bend, Indiana. Navy veteran (currently in the reserve). Buttigieg, who would be both the youngest and the first openly gay president in our history, should by all rights be my number one choice. On paper, he has everything. I appreciate intelligence, and who can compete in that category with a multilingual Rhodes scholar who taught himself to read Norwegian just to read an author he liked? I also have a preference for candidates with both executive and military experience, and as a two-term mayor and Navy veteran who served in Afghanistan, he has both. He even has private-sector experience, having worked for McKinsey. But he's said several things that have turned me off to him, not least of which were comments in a January Washington Post interview in which he Monday-morning-quarterbacked Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign strategy and effectively said that Trump was smarter than she in his approach. I don't mind people disagreeing with Clinton. I have. But I had two big issues with his remarks: 1) he delivered them in a very disrespectful way, especially considering that as a gay man, he couldn't even have dreamed of running for president in a world in which a Hillary Clinton hadn't forever shattered the mindset that only straight white men are allowed to be president; 2) since there is no evidence that he delivered his admonitions to her BEFORE the 2016 election, it's obvious that he didn't know any better himself, meaning that he wasn't imparting any wisdom, but just delivering some 20/20 hindsight. As a secular atheist, I am also uncomfortable with how pushy he is about his religion. I suspect he's overcompensating here. I can practically hear the PR executives telling him he has to avoid being tagged with gay stereotypes by being as straight-laced and Jesus-y as possible. It comes across as phony, frankly. Or perhaps he is quite sincere and really is that religious, which concerns me even more. Finally, he just strikes me as a prime example of someone who possesses great intelligence but less wisdom. Intelligence is something with which you are born (to an extent) and can cultivate (to an arguably even greater extent). But wisdom can only come with time, experience, and reflection. Some people are capable of accumulating enough wisdom to be president by age 39; he isn't one of them, in my opinion. Forecast: with more years of experience, perhaps starting with a role as VP or (better yet) as a member of the next president's cabinet, he might eventually be ready. Buttigieg 2028? Consider that even then, he would only be turning 47 the day before his inauguration. That would still make him the fifth-youngest person to become president, after TR, JFK, Clinton, and Grant. If I were Buttigieg, I would be praying for a Harris victory, because that's his only path to a vice-presidency.

3) Julián Castro. 44. Former mayor of San Antonio. Former HUD secretary under Obama. Another perfect candidate on paper. Executive leadership experience. Cabinet experience. Mentored by Obama. But it's frankly hard to see how Castro breaks out of the back of the pack. He simply doesn't have much of a 'hook.' He's not the most progressive, or the youngest, or the most dynamic, or the best orator, or the best fundraiser, or the most....well, anything. He just feels like an also-ran to me. It's also hard for him because he currently has no stage: he's not the current anything of anything. That would be fine if he had the name recognition of, say, Joe Biden. But he doesn't. Having said all this, I can't find anything about him I don't like. He checks all the right progressive boxes and says all the right things. I just doubt his ability to distinguish himself. My forecast: if Kirsten Gillibrand or Amy Klobuchar were to win the nomination, I think he stands an excellent chance of being tapped as VP. Otherwise, I think his best shot is to parlay his run into a more senior cabinet position in the next administration. Between his extensive experience and his Ivy League education (which includes a Harvard law degree), he could succeed in almost any role.

4) John Delaney. 55. Former congressman from Maryland. Businessman. I call him "John Who?" <YAAAAWN> There's absolutely nothing that distinguishes this rather anodyne fellow. That hasn't stopped him from being the determined little-engine-that-could ever since 2017. He's reportedly visited every single county in Iowa already. It's hard to see how he sets himself apart. Forecast: America's next Commerce secretary, where he will perform admirably, if not spectacularly, and will then retire to private life when he realizes that being a cabinet secretary has made him no more viable a candidate in 2028 than he was in 2020.

5) Tulsi Gabbard. 37. Congresswoman from Hawaii. Veteran. Where do I begin? We have two candidates for whom it would be VERY hard for me to vote even in the general election (though I still would because, hey, Trump). I hate everything about this Trump Lite woman. Let's start with her past virulently anti-LGBTQ  positions, including support for gay conversion therapy. When she realized she couldn't maintain these positions and win as a Democrat in blue Hawaii, she modified them. I am convinced that is the only reason why. Now throw in her support of Putin, Assad, and Modi, stir in her sympathy for Trump, and add a dash of support from David Duke, and you've got a toxic recipe for a candidate who clearly would have become a Republican had she been from any less solidly blue a state than Hawaii. Hard pass for me. I honestly question not only her loyalty as a Democrat but her loyalty to our country. Forecast: my hope is that she goes away completely and even loses her House seat to primary challenger Kai Kahele next year. But I have this fear in the pit of my stomach that she is someone who, for reasons either selfish or downright mercenary and treasonous, might try to pull a Jill Stein. If she were to lose both the nomination and her House seat, I could realistically see her dropping her progressive façade and declaring herself a Republican. That and a blonde dye job could land her a lucrative gig on Fox News. Alternative nightmare scenario: Sanders/Gabbard 2020 should Sanders win the nomination.

6) Kirsten Gillibrand. 52. Senator from New York. Former congresswoman. Gillibrand changes her positions based on the situation. She used to represent a conservative district and was thus a conservative Democrat. Now she's running for president in a crowded field dominated by progressives, so bam! presto! she's now a progressive. She seriously damaged herself with many progressives after the role she played in the railroading of Al Franken. (I blame Franken as much as I do her, but that's another story.) On Twitter, every time I mention her name, I am flooded with comments from outraged progressive women who can't stand her solely because of that fiasco. I don't think she can recover from it. There's also the rank hypocrisy: Ms #MeToo got caught shielding a staff member/senior adviser who had been credibly accused of sexual harassment. Forecast: she's made too many enemies even to end up in a cabinet. If a sufficiently popular challenger primaries her in 2024, she could easily lose her seat in the Senate. I'm frankly surprised no one did last year.

7) Kamala Harris. 54. Senator from California. Former AG of California. Harris is currently my number one hope for beating Trump, mainly just because of her personality and tough-as-nails prosecutor image. She is the kind of woman Trump fears the most. And unlike Warren, she doesn't let Trump get under her skin and has exactly no fear of him. She could wipe the floor with him in a debate and humiliate him in a way that might even undermine his base's support. Mind you, I am not entirely without reservations about Harris. There are some questions from her time as AG that I feel need to be addressed, not least of all the pass she gave Steve Mnuchin's bank. And she isn't without her gaffes. Laughing it up about how much she used to love smoking pot in college while discussing marijuana legalization struck me as extremely insensitive and tone-deaf, given how many people went to jail for doing exactly that on her watch as AG. Forecast: I think she has an excellent shot at becoming our first female president. If she loses the nomination but we win the presidency, Attorney General Harris is a very strong possibility. Either way, I don't see her accepting a quiet life in the Senate.

8) John Hickenlooper. 67. Businessman. Former mayor of Denver. Former governor of Colorado. As the moderate former governor of a purple (trending blue) state, his claim to fame is being a bipartisan dealmaker. I am just not convinced the party's base has an appetite for a compromiser right now, especially one with his record of being so cozy with corporate interests. I personally find him too conservative. Forecast: I don't see him gaining much traction. He might gain an opening as a Biden Junior if Biden himself decides not to run, though. 

9) Jay Inslee. 68. Former congressman from and governor of Washington. Inslee's "in" is his insistence that we put climate change front and center. He's the only candidate who's made it the centerpiece of his campaign. Unfortunately, as much as I agree with him that nothing else really matters if you're living on a dying planet, the polls show that voters just don't respond well to making that the main driver behind a campaign. It's not enough to be right; you have to be convincing. I am not confident that he has the oratorical and persuasive ability required to make his case to America. Having said all that, I have no objections to him and I have yet to discover any red flags. Forecast: America's next EPA head or Secretary of the Interior. And a damn fine one he would be in either.

10) Amy Klobuchar. 58. Attorney. Former county attorney in the county that is home to the Twin Cities. Current senator from Minnesota. Overall, I like Klobuchar, for much the same reason that I like Harris: I think she has the right temperament to take on Trump, and of course, also like Harris, she is fully qualified to be president. As with Harris, I am confident she could hold her own against Trump in the debates, and I think she's exactly the kind of woman who terrifies him: strong, smart, and tough. Of course, we've all heard the rumors about her reputation as an overbearing and overly demanding boss. Part of me is concerned about that, because being abusive towards staff is unacceptable and is a sign of poor emotional maturity. But I also question how much of this is real cause for concern and how much of this is just the tired old double standard at work. Male leaders are never challenged in this area. Trump is by all reports a terrible person for whom to work. I have heard that Mike Bloomberg is downright insufferable. But we don't challenge that with men. It's supposedly just a sign of "toughness." Forecast: don't count Klobuchar out. If Harris stumbles or has a scandal, she's got a real shot. She'd also be a great pick for AG under a Harris presidency. 

11) Wayne Messam. 44. Businessman. Former college football star. Current mayor of Miramar, Florida. I'll be honest: I had never even heard of this guy until he announced his run recently. Took me completely by surprise. At this point, it's starting to feel like everyone is throwing their hat in the ring with the attitude of 'hey, why not? everyone else is doing it!" He has an interesting back story, though. The son of Jamaican immigrants, he went to Florida State, where he was a wide receiver on the 1993 national championship team. Later, he started his own construction company and in 2015, he became the first African-American mayor of Miramar after defeating the long-time incumbent. His campaign claim to fame is his desire to cancel all $1.5T in student debt. Someone has to pay for that, though. And that means transferring the burden to everyone. So you transfer wealth from a pool of mostly college-educated people (generally higher earners) to everyone, including those who never went to college and on average earn considerably less. Does that seem smart or fair? Having such a poorly-thought-out campaign centerpiece makes me leery of him. Forecast: maybe he's just angling for some name recognition, something he can parlay into a cabinet position like HUD? I don't know. Let's hear what he has to say.

12) Beto O'Rourke. 46. Former El Paso city councilman. Former congressman from Texas. Challenged and lost to Ted Cruz for the senate seat there last year. All around darling of the Democratic party. Mr. Personality. But how much 'there' is really there? There's no question he has the presence and the personality to charm the voters, but I sometimes question his substance. And the GOP would have lots of fun with his DUI mugshot. (They've already started in fact.) Forecast: I think Harris would be wise to pick him as VP, just due to his campaigning and fundraising chops. He'd be a good party energizer. But if she doesn't get the nomination, I don't see him as being a good fit as VP for any other candidate. That leaves him two routes in politics: challenge Cornyn for the senate seat or take a job in the next administration.

13) Tim Ryan. 45. Congressman from Ohio. Former congressional staffer (for the notoriously corrupt Jim Trafficant, something that could itself raise questions). I won't spend much time on Ryan because he is FAR too conservative for my tastes. Some argue we need a centrist like him who can win in Trump country like his part of Ohio. I am not convinced anyone can win in deep Trump country but Trump, and attempting to lurch right to capture those people will only undermine the enthusiasm of the party base. Forecast: Congressman Ryan will still be Congressman Ryan two years from now, assuming he runs for reelection. 

14) Bernie Sanders. 77. Sanders is not a Democrat. I do not want him running for our nomination and see no reason to allow him to do so under current rules. His misogyny (google things like "Sanders Female Rape Fantasy" and "Sanders Lack of Orgasms Causes Cervical Cancer" and "Sanders Campaign Staff Harassment and Pay Inequality"), his tone-deafness on race, his long-on-rhetoric, short-on-specifics approach to policy, his personal narcissism and irascibility, his MAGA't-like, rabid supporters, his refusal to release his full tax returns. Take your pick. All excellent reasons not to vote for him. I would have to swallow hard and hold my nose even to vote for him in the general election. Forecast: there is a path to victory for him for the nomination, unfortunately. I certainly hope someone else closes it off. If he loses the nomination, expect him to continue in the Senate until he dies. He's far too proud (not to mention too hated) to take (or be offered) any cabinet position. 

15) Eric Swalwell. Congressman from California. It's indicative of this race that at the tender age of 38, Swalwell is still just the third-youngest candidate. Swalwell's main claim to fame seems to be, well, fame. He's a darling of the cable and talk shows. His other attention-grabber is that he is the boldest candidate to date on the issue of gun control. He's taken the rather risky stance of wanting to ban and then buy back all assault-style rifles. That's a hard sell in middle America. And honestly, I just don't see a lot of reason to be excited about his candidacy. In a crowded field full of talent, he doesn't really stand out. His pre-Congress career contains no great highlights. He has no inspiring backstory. It's hard not to see him as just another fratboy-cum-lawyer-cum-congressman. Forecast: I can't imagine him lasting long in this race. He might be able to parlay his fame into a cabinet position. But mainly I see his future as a congressional star of Twitter.

16) Elizabeth Warren. 69. Former Harvard legal professor. Consumer rights advocate. Senator from Massachusetts. All-around brilliant person. It would be tough to find a room in which she isn't the smartest person. But as I alluded to above, I just feel like Trump has her number. He knows how to get under her skin. He's proven he can rile her up and manipulate her. It's hard to imagine a Klobuchar or Harris falling for his DNA test trap, for example. Forecast: once she figures out she's just not gaining the traction she needs to, she will drop out. She'll be a helpful campaigner for our nominee. Personally, I would love her to stay in the Senate. If she fully dedicated her remaining years to that, she could inherit Kennedy's Lion of the Senate mantel. Alternative scenario: SCOTUS Associate Justice Warren.

17) Marianne Williamson. 66. Self-help author. New-age lecturer. And that bio is everything I need to know that she's going nowhere. NEXT! Forecast: see bio.

18) Andrew Yang. 44. Former tech executive and current non-profit founder and executive. The darkest of dark-horse candidates, Yang does actually have some very interesting ideas. Among them is his support of UBI (universal basic income, which he proposes to set at $12,000 a year). He's very geeky and enjoys talking about robotics and artificial intelligence. These aren't academic topics to him, though: they have serious implications for the future of our workforce, and those implications are closely tied to why he believes we need UBI. Google his TED talk on the subject. It's quite fascinating. Forecast: as I said, he is the longest of long shots. I suspect he will quietly drop out at some point and not be well remembered by this time next year. But he's a very creative thinker and obviously highly intelligent. Perhaps a future president could leverage his expertise and fresh thinking in some capacity.

OK, there's the crowd as of today, 12 April 2019. Don't blink or you'll miss future candidates announcing. I fully expect Biden and Bullock to announce eventually, and there could be others. I will publish occasional updates as things change. In the meantime, below is my promised ranking (though it should be fairly obvious based on the above). As many of the middling candidates aren't really distinguishable from each other, I am just going to rank a few, lump the rest into also-rans, and create a special little third group for Gabbard and Sanders.

Group I, ranked:
1) Kamala Harris
2) Amy Klobuchar

3) Inslee

4) Castro

Group II, unranked:

Everyone except the above and Gabbard and Sanders.

Group III, which I call Garbage Island:

Gabbard and Sanders.

Stay tuned for updates!